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Stürme und Sturmfluten - Projekte
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Zu diesem Themenbereich werden bzw. wurden folgende Projekte mit Beteiligung von EOS-Zentren bearbeitet:
ADOPT - Advanced decision support system for ship design, operation and training
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| Beschreibung: |
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Modern ships develop rapidly, and are far too complex to rely on experience alone. Experience gained by a crew on a certain ship often not applies to another, even not the same ship type. With the need for decreased transport times, deadlines becoming more relevant, rising insurance policies, marine pollution becoming a major issue, crew numbers reduced to an utmost minimum, and systems becoming more complex, this results in too few people, who need to decide fast and often under huge pressure. All knowing the consequences of taking a decision that will mean delay (or worse). ADOPT will develop a Decision Support System to provide information and guidance by offering an evaluation of consequences; giving insight in the uncertainty related to the information. This will be done by identifying and defining: 1) Criteria for safety; 2) Sea keeping safety; 3) Criteria for ship design, classification & operation. This will result in increased knowledge on ship motions and their prediction. Expected results are commercial advantage for shipping companies, more safety of crew and cargo, pollution prevention, training of crews. The ADOPT project will focus on optimising the safety by development of a system that senses the environment for ACTUAL situation data, and predicting the ship motions accordingly, thereby ensuring optimal operational performance, relying on computer based decision support tool creating an interface to be used in ship operation, training and design. |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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April 2005 - March 2008 |
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| Projektziele: |
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| Projektregion: |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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see link |
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| Link: |
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http://adopt.rtdproject.net/ |
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 nach oben |
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DFNK - Koordinierung
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| Beschreibung: |
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Verbundprojekt mit 15 Partnern aus Deutschland und Österreich. Forschungsgegenstand waren die Naturgefahren Erdbeben, Hochwasser, Sturm und Waldbrand, insbesondere in Bezug auf Risikoanalysen und Frühwarnung |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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2000 - 2003 |
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| Projektziele: |
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Das DFNK war eine Initiative deutscher Forschungseinrichtungen und Institutionen mit dem Ziel, Erfahrungen und Wissen, Methoden und Daten auf dem Gebiet Naturkatastrophen aus Natur-, Ingenieur- und Sozialwissenschaften zusammenzuführen und nutzerorientiert aufzubereiten. |
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| Projektregion: |
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Deutschland |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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siehe Link |
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| Link: |
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http://dfnk.gfz-potsdam.de/index.html |
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| nach oben |
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DFNK - Teilprojekt "Vernetzte Informations- und Frühwarnsysteme für den Einsatz im Katastrophenmanagement"
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| Beschreibung: |
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Verbundprojekt mit 15 Partnern aus Deutschland und Österreich. Forschungsgegenstand waren die Naturgefahren Erdbeben, Hochwasser, Sturm und Waldbrand, insbesondere in Bezug auf Risikoanalysen und Frühwarnung. Aufgabe des DRZ war der Aufbau einer Informationsinfrastruktur für das Projekt einschließlich Datenbasis und Katalogdienst sowie Website. |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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2000 - 2003 |
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| Projektziele: |
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Das DFNK war eine Initiative deutscher Forschungseinrichtungen und Institutionen mit dem Ziel, Erfahrungen und Wissen, Methoden und Daten auf dem Gebiet Naturkatastrophen aus Natur-, Ingenieur- und Sozialwissenschaften zusammenzuführen und nutzerorientiert aufzubereiten. |
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| Projektregion: |
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Deutschland |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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siehe Link |
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| Link: |
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http://dfnk.gfz-potsdam.de |
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HIPOCAS - Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and the Coastal Areas of Europe
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| Beschreibung: |
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The objective of this project is to provide high-resolution (in space and time) hindcasts of wind, waves, storm surges and currents over the last 40 years for selected European coastal areas. In particular these areas comprise the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Irish Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, and the North East Atlantic south of the United Kingdom including the Azores and Canary Islands. The hindcasts are obtained from state-of-the art regional models of the atmosphere, the waves, and the oceans and include also the collection of available in-situ and space-born measurements as well as verification and validation of the hindcasts. The methodology is based on a "regional reanalysises" approach as developed in the Lead Project and uses the global coarse grid NCEP-Reanalyses as starting point. |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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2000 - 2004 |
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| Projektziele: |
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The objective of this project is to provide high-resolution (in space and time) hindcasts of wind, waves, storm surges and currents over the last 40 years for selected European coastal areas. In particular these areas comprise the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Irish Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, and the North East Atlantic south of the United Kingdom including the Azores and Canary Islands. |
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| Projektregion: |
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European coastal areas |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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High-resolution data sets of wind, waves, storm surges etc. for European coastal seas together with analyses of long-term changes. For the North Sea area these analyses confirm and update the findings of WASA, in particular that the storm, wave and storm surge climate for Northern Europe has indeed roughened in the past decades. However, high-resolution analyses reveal spatial differences and an update until 2002 shows that storm activity, wave height and storm surges have decreased since about 1990-1995 over most of the area. |
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| Link: |
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http://w3g.gkss.de/G/Mitarbeiter/weisse/Projects/HIPOCAS/index.html |
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KRIM - Klimawandel und präventives Risiko- und Küstenschutzmanagement an der deutschen Nordseeküste" (KRIM)
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| Beschreibung: |
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The environmental and socio-economic impact of a “worst-case” climate scenario (mean sea level rise: 55 cm, tidal range change: 25 cm) was assessed for the Jade-Weser area and an approach for decision making was provided. Among others, hydrodynamic changes were investigated and provided as input for the risk-of-failure analyses performed within the project. The impact of the climate scenario was estimated by numerical simulations for both, present day and modified (raised tidal flats, deeper channels) topography. |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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2001 - 2004 |
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| Projektziele: |
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To assess impacts of coastal climate change for the Jade-Weser region |
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| Projektregion: |
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Jade-Weser |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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In the climate scenario the forced rise in water levels at the seaward boundaries of the solution domain propagates with mean deviations of some centimetres into the inner Jade-Weser area; the mean changes are smaller for the status quo topography than for the modified topography. The strongest rise in high water levels occurs in the inner Jade Bay (forced rise of 65 cm (55 cm + 10 cm due to tidal range change) plus up to 15 cm). Storm surge barriers in Jade Bay and Weser estuary would reduce the impact upstream of the barriers but would further increase the storm high waters seaward by up to 30 cm. The inundation of the tidal flats is 10 % (status quo topography) and 3 % (modified topography) longer on the average, the supralittoral decreases, and higher energetic waves can run up closer to the coast further increasing the probability of wave overtopping at the sea dikes. The general increase in impact on the tidal flats by changed currents and waves is smaller for the modified than for the status quo topography. |
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| Link: |
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http://www.krim.uni-bremen.de/ |
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MAXWAVE - Rogue Waves - Forecast and Impact on Marine Structures
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| Beschreibung: |
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Within the last years a high number of large ships have been lost. The causes of accidents are in many cases believed to be 'rogue waves'. These are individual waves of exceptional wave height or abnormal shape. In this project properties of and forecasting abilities for low frequency wave fields, extreme individual waves and wave groups are investigated for both deep and shallow waters. New design criteria considering the impact of rogue waves on ships and offshore constructions will be derived. The innovation is the combination of new oceanographic knowledge and ocean wave data resources with new approaches to vessels, marine construction, design and operation. It addresses the needs of coastal engineers and port designers/operators in terms of influence and impacts of extreme waves. The main objective is to provide a quality-based met-ocean information product for the benefit of both high sea and coastal zone operating industry and authorities. To confirm the existence of rogue waves and their risk of encounter. Existing measurements and hindcast modelling will be used to better understand the shape and impacts of extreme waves in relation with ship/offshore accidents. Modern measurement techniques will be exploited towards the recognition of extreme individual waves and their regional probability of occurrence. To implement the improved knowledge of freak waves to modern ship design, by having involved the two marine communities. To develop forecast criteria for rogue waves with the aid of physical, mathematical statistical and deterministic wave model tests and by that to improve security for human life. To disseminate and exploit the project results by the project members, covering the marine design/operation side, the wave science community, system providers and certifying institutions. |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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2000 - 2003 |
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| Projektziele: |
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Investigation of properties and forecasting abilities of low frequency wave fields, extreme individual waves and wave groups as well as derivation of new design criteria considering the impact of rogue waves on ships and offshore constructions |
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| Projektregion: |
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global |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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see http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/PubServices/2005pdfs/Rosenthal.pdf |
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| Link: |
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http://w3g.gkss.de/projects/maxwave/ |
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MOSES - Modellierung des mittelfristigen Seegangsklimas im deutschen Nordseeküstengebiet
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| Beschreibung: |
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Über lange Zeit ist die Bemessungsphilosophie im Insel- und Küstenschutz an einem deterministisch festlegbaren Extremereignis orientiert gewesen. Von daher ist die Ermittlung zuverlässiger Grundlagen für die Quantifizierung der bei einem solchen Extremereignis zuzuordnenden Bemessungsparameter eines der primären Ziele der Forschung im Küsteningenieurwesen. Mittlerweile ist dabei neben die traditionelle deterministische Methodik auch eine wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretisch begründete getreten. Um aber diese Methodik sachgerecht anwenden zu können, wird eine erhebliche Menge an Grunddaten benötigt. Diese unverzichtbare Voraussetzung ist für das deutsche Nordseeküstengebiet in Form von Naturdaten -in begrenztem Umfang- bestenfalls für Sturmflutwasserstände gegeben, keinesfalls aber für Sturmflutseegang. Die Möglichkeit entsprechende Datengrundlagen zu schaffen bestehen einerseits darin, auf Jahrzehnte ausgelegte Seegangsmessprogramme mit sowohl hoher räumlicher Gerätedichte als auch der Abdeckung größerer repräsentativer Küstenabschnitte vorzunehmen. Diese Vorgehensweise ist nicht nur sehr kostenaufwendig, sondern beinhaltet auch den Nachteil, dass die für weiterführende Untersuchungen erforderlichen Datengrundlagen mittelfristig unverfügbar bleiben. Andererseits besteht die Möglichkeit verfügbare Datensätze über Neustrukturierungen und Einbindung in mathematische Modellierungen zu nutzen, um -im Vergleich zu entsprechenden Messkampagnen- kostengünstig in erheblich kürzerer Zeit längere Zeitreihen zu produzieren. Diesen Vorteilen steht der Nachteil einer Methoden bedingten Unschärfe gegenüber. Ziel dieses Forschungsvorhabens ist es, einerseits durch Anwendung neuer Modellierungstechniken diese Unschärfen einerseits zu verringern und andererseits durch die Validierung anhand von Naturmessungen die Unschärfen mit erheblich größerer Genauigkeit als bisher quantifizieren zu können. Aufgebaut wird dabei auf in der Ozeanographie und Hochseemeteorologie entwickelter Techniken zur Erstellung synthetischer Zeitreihen, mit denen Randbedingungen für detaillierte gekoppelte Modellierungen in morphologisch stark gegliederten Küstengebieten geschaffen werden. Gleichzeitig können diese Zeitreihen in Verbindung mit morphodynamischen Modellierungen dazu dienen, Konzepte für zeitlich komprimierte Modellierungen zu entwickeln, indem analog zur „morphologisch wirksamen Tide” ein „morphologisch prägender Seegang” für Mittelfristzeiträume eingeführt wird. Damit würde zum einen das Anwendungsspektrum morphodynamischer Modelle erheblich verbreitert und zum anderen eine vertiefte Einsicht in seegangsgeprägte morphodynamische Prozesse ermöglicht werden. |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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Mai 2003 - April 2007 |
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| Projektziele: |
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| Projektregion: |
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Deutsche Nordseeküste |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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siehe Link |
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http://kfki.baw.de/KFKI-Projekte.7.0.html |
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| nach oben |
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PRUDENCE - Prediction of regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European climate change risks and effects
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| Beschreibung: |
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Climate change conditioned upon assumed projections of future greenhouse gas emissions (“scenarios”) was simulated using a cascade of numerical climate models. First a series of global climate models (GCMs) at spatial resolutions of about 300-400 km were applied to simulate future climatic conditions at global scales. Subsequently, regional climate models (RCMs) were used to downscale the coarse GCM simulations to higher resolutions of about 50 km × 50 km for Western Europe and the North Sea area. Finally, impact studies were undertaken. In particular changes in North Sea storm-related water levels due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations were analyzed from running a tide-surge model driven by wind fields from a number of RCM simulations under different greenhouse gas scenarios. This way, uncertainties in projecting future storm surge climate were assessed. |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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2001 - 2003 |
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| Projektziele: |
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To assess climate change impacts (here for storm surges along the North Sea coast line) and to quantify uncertainties on a regional scale |
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| Projektregion: |
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Europe and North Sea |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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An increase of maximum storm related water levels of 20-40 cm along the German North Sea coast by 2070-2100 remains likely. On top of that about 30-40 cm have to be added because of mean sea level rise caused by thermal expansion of the ocean. |
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| Link: |
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http://prudence.dmi.dk/index.html |
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| nach oben |
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SAFEDOR- Design, operation and regulation for safety
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| Beschreibung: |
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SAFEDOR undertakes to deliver the foundation for Europe to sustain world-leadership on safety-critical and knowledge-intensive ships, services, products, equipment and related software and to install systematic innovation in ship design and operation by modernizing the maritime regulatory system. SAFEDOR constitutes the culmination of 7 years of EU-wide concerted effort to foster radical shift from the current maritime safety regime. To this end, SAFEDOR has pooled together an accolade of leading expertise from across the whole maritime spectrum to pursue its vision of strengthening the competitiveness of the EU maritime industry by enhancing safety through innovation. This entails development of a holistic approach that links risk prevention / reduction to ship performance and cost, with safety treated as a lifecycle issue and a design objective, implying focus on risk-based operation and need for risk-based regulations within an integrated risk-based design framework, utilizing routinely first principles tools. This all-embracing system is the key to attaining optimum design solutions and it will act as catalyst to pan-European cooperation with strong structuring and integration effects. SAFEDOR will produce a series of prototype ship designs to validate and implement this novel approach and ascertain its practicability. To accelerate transition from conventional to risk-based design, the wider maritime community will be inculcated through a rigorous knowledge management, training and dissemination system of all technological, methodological and regulatory developments whilst continuing to nurture, enthuse and fuel a maritime safety culture. |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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February 2005 - January 2009 |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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see link |
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http://www.safedor.org/ |
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SEAL - Sea Level Change: An integrated approach to its quantification
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| Beschreibung: |
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Climate change is a natural phenomenon and has occurred over a large range of spatial and temporal scales during the earth's history. Besides this natural variability, the question of artificial changes of climate has gained increasing public attention. This interest is caused by indications of recent global warming, which has been related to increasing portions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The importance of sea level when studying climate change is that it responds as a highly sensitive indicator of climate change, the main causal connections being the mass exchange between land ice and ocean water and the thermal expansion of the ocean water. Besides this monitoring function of climate change, sea level itself is of public concern. This is a consequence of the fact that a large portion of the human population lives close to the coast and, therefore, would be seriously affected by a sea level rise as expected for global warming. Thus, irrespective of whether the current changes are governed by natural or by anthropogenic processes, it is of prime interest to determine sea level with high accuracy and to investigate the likely scenarios for the future. One problem associated with the use of sea level as an indicator of climate change is that the details of the mass exchange between land ice and ocean water are not adequately known. Another difficulty is that the climate-induced decadal and secular sea level changes are concealed by seasonal, annual and interannual variations, which act as noise when trying to extract the long-term trend. Finally, long time series of sea level are available only from tide gauges, which are also sensitive to vertical land movements and are thus records of relative rather than absolute sea level. Recently, new observational techniques and theoretical models of relevance to sea level have been introduced. One technique involves the determination of the global sea surface height using satellite altimetry. Furthermore, dynamic ice sheet and ocean models have become available and can be used to better quantify the mass transfer between continental ice and ocean water and the oceanic circulation in the major basins and marginal seas. New developments also allow monitoring of the vertical land movements, which can be determined by direct measurements using the GPS technique or by theoretical modelling of the causative processes. Further progress in the quantification of sea level and its changes obviously requires a multi-disciplinary approach using the full suite of observational techniques and theoretical models currently available. Among the HGF research centres, AWI, GFZ and GKSS possess the expertise required for this task and an integrated approach of these centres is therefore intended. |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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2000 - 2003 |
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SEAL is a large scale research project of the Hermann von Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF) focussing on an integrated strategy for quantifying sea level changes on various space and time scales. |
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global |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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see link |
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| Link: |
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http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/pb1/op/seal/ |
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SEAROUTES - Advanced decision support for shiprouting based on full-scale ship specific responses as well as improved sea and weather forecasts including synoptic, high precision and realtime satellite data
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| Beschreibung: |
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The sea performance of a ship and, hence, the safety and well-being of its passengers and crew, the quality of life of people at sea, and the ship's cargo, its life time, speed, fuel consumption and emissions, the economics and environmental impact of sea transport, all depend on sea state and weather along the searoutes. Oceanographic and atmospheric input data are so far provided through general sea weather and sea state forecasts for a 5-10 days period. High precision satellite altimetry by research satellites such as ERS-2, Topex-Poseidon and Jason do provide sea state data in the required order of magnitude of resolution and precision. Computer based decision support systems will be the outcome of the SEAROUTES initiative which aim, via optimization of achievement functions, at 1) Minimum time, fuel consumption and ship motion of a transcontinental container service, while also considering the adverse effects of changing ETAs (Estimated Time of Arrival) on transport logistics, 2) Maximum safety and well-being of passengers (motion reduction) of fast (car) ferries, and minimizing effects on the overall logistics: information on changed ETA's and consequences for logistics (e.g. advice on different railway connections). |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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January 2001 - December 2003 |
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global |
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see link |
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http://www.tu-berlin.de/vws/w3vwsde/w3radde/2001/searoutes/ |
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STOWASUS - Regional storm, wave and surge scenarios for the 2100 century
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| Beschreibung: |
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In STOWASUS severe storms, surges and waves for present climate and in a scenario with increased greenhouse gas concentrations were studied. Specifically the project represents a joint atmospheric/oceanographic numerical modelling effort aiming at constructing and analysing storm, wave and surge climatologies for the North Atlantic/European region in a climate forced by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and to compare with present day conditions. |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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1998 - 2001 |
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To analyze possible future changes in the wind, wave and storm surge climate in a scenario of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. |
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| Projektregion: |
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Europe |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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see link |
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http://web.dmi.dk/pub/STOWASUS-2100/ |
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Sturmfluten - Auswirkungen von Klimaänderungen auf Sturmentwicklung und Extremwasserstände in der Nordsee
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| Beschreibung: |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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1994 - 1997 |
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| Projektziele: |
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Quantifizierung von Szenarien zukünftiger Sturmfluten |
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| Projektregion: |
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Nordsee |
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| Ergebnisse: |
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In dem Projekt sind Wasserstandszeitreihen von Pegeln längs der niederländischen, deutschen, dänischen und schwedischen Nordseeküste analysiert worden im Hinblick auf systematische Veränderungen der Statistik der Hochwasser. Dabei wurde unterschieden zwischen Schwankungen von jährlichen und längeren Mittelwerten und Variationen um diese Mittelwerte herum. Die Veränderungen der mittleren Wasserstände sind im Wesentlichen Ausdruck geologischer Vorgänge, von Veränderungen in der Bathymetrie des Nordsee, der Ästuare und des lokalen Umfeldes des Pegels. Die Schwankungen um den mittleren (Hoch-) Wasserstand sind bedingt durch die synoptische Variabilität der atmosphärischen Zirkulation, also insbesondere durch Stürme. Während deutliche systematische Veränderungen im mittleren Wasserstand - z.B. im Falle von Cuxhaven in der Größenordnung von 30 cm / Jahrhundert - gefunden wurden, ist die Statistik der Variationen um den mittleren Wasserstand herum, etwa ausgedruckt im 90% Quantil der innermonatlichen Schwankungen, geprägt von interdekadischen Schwankungen aber frei von systematischen Trends. Die zweifelsfrei erhöhte Häufigkeit von Sturmhochwassern ist nicht auf vermehrte oder verstärkte Stürme zurückzuführen sondern auf einen erhöhten mittleren Wasserstand. Neben der Analyse der rezenten Schwankungen von Sturmflutstatistiken wurden in dem Projekt aus Szenarienrechnungen mit hochauflösenden atmosphärischen Zirkulationsmodellen Szenarien für mögliche zukünftige Sturmflutstatistiken, die im Gefolge von erhöhten Treibhausgaskonzentrationen eintreten könnten, erarbeitet. Zwei vom Deutschen Klimarechenzentrum angebotene Szenarienrechnungen (mit T42 und T106 horizontalen Auflösungen) für den hypothetischen Zeithorizont "2xCO2", der für etwa 2050 erwartet wird, wurden analysiert. Vermöge einer statistischen, vorab empirisch bestimmten Transferfunktion wurde die Verteilung möglicher Hochwasser konsistent bestimmt. Dabei ergaben sich Veränderungen, die vernachlässigbar (T42) oder von der Größenordnung weniger Dezimeter (T106) sind. In beiden Fällen verbleiben die Veränderungen im Schwankungsbereich der natürlichen Klimaschwankungen. |
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| Link: |
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http://w3g.gkss.de/G/Mitarbeiter/storch/storm.surges.html |
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| nach oben |
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WASA - Waves and Storms in the North Atlantic
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| Beschreibung: |
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| Dauer (von - bis): |
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1995 - 1997 |
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| Projektziele: |
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The European project WASA has been set up for verifying, or falsifying hypotheses of a worsening storm and wave climate in the Northeast Atlantic and its adjacent seas in the present century. |
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| Projektregion: |
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North Atlantic and adjacent seas |
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The European project WASA has been set up for verifying, or falsifying hypotheses of a worsening storm and wave climate in the Northeast Atlantic and its adjacent seas in the present century. Its main conclusion is that the storm- and wave climate in most of the Northeast Atlantic and in the North Sea has undergone significant variations on time scales of tens of years; it has indeed roughened in the past decades, but the present intensity of the storm- and wave-climate seems to compare with the intensity at the beginning of this century. Part of the variability is found to be related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. There is a slight increase of probabilities of high waves derived from conventional extreme value statistics in the North West approaches of the North Sea. An analysis of a high-resolution climate change experiment, mimicking global warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, results in weak increase of storm activity and (extreme) wave heights in the Bay of Biscay and in the North Sea, while storm action and waves slightly decrease along the Norwegian coast and in most of the remaining North Atlantic area in this scenario. A weak to moderate increase of storm surges in the southern and eastern part of the North Sea is expected. These projected anthropogenic changes at the time of CO2 doubling fall well within the limits of variability observed in the past. A major methodical obstacle for the assessment of changes in the intensity of storm and wave events are the inhomogeneities of the observational record, both in terms of local observations and of analyzed products (such as weather maps), which usually produce an artificial increase of extreme winds. This is so because older analyses were based on fewer observations and with limited conceptual and numerical models of the dynamical processes. Therefore the assessment about changes in storminess is based on local observations of air pressure and high-frequency variance at tide gauges. Data of this sort is available for 100 years and sometimes more. The assessment about changes in the wave climate is achieved by a two-step procedure; first a state-of-the-art wave model is integrated with 40 years of wind analysis; the results are assumed to be reasonably homogeneous in the area south of 70N and east of 20W; then a regression is built which related monthly mean air-pressure distributions to intra-monthly percentiles of wave heights at selected locations with the help of the 40 year simulated data; finally observed monthly mean air pressure fields from the beginning of this century are fed into the regression model derive best guesses of wave statistics throughout the century. |
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http://w3g.gkss.de/G/Mitarbeiter/storch/wasa.html |
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